"Judgement is mine, saith the Lord." I think that this is from the New Testament, but since the New is heavily based on the Old, and since the quote applies, I will use it. I feel that it is so easy for us to make judgments and pronouncements. Doing so gives us a sense of control, of power and of right-ness. Doubt, uncertainty and vulnerability all make us very very uncomfortable. So if we can make ourselves feel better by deciding that something is definitively "ratzon Hashem" or certain punishment or obvious reward for a specific act or actions, then that gives us a sense of meaning and control that we very much need. On the other hand, the danger of these pronouncements is in the very sense of right-ness that they give us. It creates a zero-sum situation in which there is a "right" and a "wrong" answer, where "right" becomes the same as "true" and "good" and "wrong", therefore, "false. These judgments leads to unnecessary divisions, pain and, in the worst case, war.
I am not saying that we should never make judgment calls. By accepting the Torah and the mitzvot, we accept that there are things that are "right" and things that are "wrong". Those are the things that Hashem, our Chazal and all of the brilliant, dedicated halachisists have determined over the centuries. And when there are areas of "grey", we go back to "v'asita hatov v'hayashar"--we behave morally, ethically, and properly.
Reading "Acts of God" as punishment (or reward) leads us to humility. PRONOUNCING such acts as definitive "punishments" or "rewards" leads us down a very dangerous path to the arrogance that the Rambam proclaims is the one unacceptable trait, the trait that we must eliminate. When bad things happen--to us, to others--I think that these things SHOULD cause us to reflect, to be humbled, to feel vulnerable and profoundly uncomfortable. When good things happen, we should take the opportunity to graciously acknowledge and accept an potential bracha. But to assume the we know what Hashem intends with each act? To me, that is the ultimate arrogance. Maybe Katrina/the tsunami in Indonesia/the earthquake in New Zealand/the tornadoes in the Midwest were all punishments from Hashem. But I would never presume to know and those who do frighten me terribly. What I do think, is that these events should cause each of us to think about who we are, why we're here and what the "right" thing is to do. If we all do that, then we can be more evolved people.
Hashem Elokim is the Judge. We are the servants. As Hashem said to Iyov--"Were you there when I created the Universe?" I feel that I can only look, guess and proceed with doing the best that I can.
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